Early voting turnout has Florida Democrats optimistic, but GOP is eyeing Election Day
Early voting turnout has Florida Democrats optimistic, but GOP is eyeing Election Day
Claire Heddles Mon, November 2, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
3
Carts full of vote-by-mail ballots are loaded onto a USPS truck at the Miami-Dade's Supervisor of Elections Office in Doral on March 19, 2026. ©PHOTO BY AL DIAZ
Democrats have been casting ballots in Tuesday’s midterm elections at a significantly higher rate than Republicans, early and mail voting data show.
Heading into Election Day, about half of Florida’s registered Democrats had already cast a ballot, while just 39% of Republicans had done so statewide, according to Division of Elections data compiled by Fresh Take Florida.
It remains an open question whether that’s indicative of Republicans being uninspired to vote this election altogether, or they’re waiting to turn out in droves on Tuesday.
Chief Financial Officer and former Republican Party of Florida Chairman Blaise Ingoglia attributed the numbers to a larger trend of Republicans opting against mail and early ballots. He said Friday he expects “massive Republican voter turnout on Election Day.”
But other Republicans have started to sound publicly nervous about whether their party’s base will head to the polls at all.
Advertisement
“Because of the changes in the overall atmospherics, I think you’ve seen some that have withdrawn from being involved in the political or electoral process to a certain extent,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said last week.
Republican Attorney General James Uthmeier, who’s campaigning to keep the job DeSantis gave him last year by appointment, said Friday that “it looks like a lot of people haven’t voted yet that typically do every single election cycle.”
Republicans, who outnumber active, registered Democrats by 1.5 million, are still leading the state in the total number of ballots cast. But they have a significantly smaller lead in mail and early ballots cast than during the last midterm election cycle in 2022, when DeSantis won reelection by 19 points.
That year, about 300,000 more Republicans cast early and mail ballots than Democrats did, state elections records show. This year, Republicans’ lead over Democrats was only about 133,000 ballots as of Monday afternoon, with some mail ballots still outstanding.
About 31% of Florida voters registered with minor political parties or without party affiliation — who, according to polls, are breaking heavily for Democratic candidates — had also already cast a ballot by Monday. At least 189,000 more no-party and third-party voters had cast ballots as of Sunday than had at the same point in 2022, according to data Fresh Take Florida provided to the Times/Herald.
• • •
Tampa Bay Times Election Coverage -
2026 midterms voter guide: Get information on candidates in Tampa Bay and across Florida
A property tax proposal and more: All 3 Florida amendments on the ballot, explained
Governor candidate stances: Clashing ideas of David Jolly and Byron Donalds put Florida at crossroads
3 reasons: Here’s why David Jolly could win the governor’s race, and here’s why Byron Donalds could
Florida polling averages: governor and Senate
Redistricting: A snapshot of each of Tampa Bay’s new congressional districts
St. Pete mayor’s race: 5 takeaways from the primary results
On St. Petersburg ballots: A breakdown of referenda and charter amendments coming before city voters
Source: “AOL Breaking”
