What the final polls are forecasting for the 2026 midterm elections
What the final polls are forecasting for the 2026 midterm elections
Eric Orvieto Mon, November 2, 2026 at 5:33 PM UTC
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Midterm week is here, and the polls show a clear trend. But what does that mean for the actual elections?
With voters casting early ballots at record rates — North Carolina, Texas, Georgia and South Carolina saw midterm early vote numbers never previously reached, and states like Maine, Kansas and Michigan had turnout up over 30% from 2022 — final polls are telling a deeper story about possible results.
Most polls show the Democrats holding an advantage in both the House and Senate races, with forecasters debating whether it will be a blue ripple, a blue wave or a blue tsunami, or if Republicans will outperform the polls.
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Republicans currently hold the House majority with a 218-214 advantage. With all 435 seats in play, including seats that were redrawn through mid-decade redistricting that was originally expected to favor the GOP, Decision Desk HQ gives the Democrats a more than 80% chance to win control of the House, with the Cook Political Report projecting they take between 227 and 240 seats.
In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage, but with 35 seats up for grabs Tuesday, a major shift could occur.
Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks during a campaign rally, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)
A New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday showed leads for Democrats in key Senate races, including leads of more than 5 points in Ohio, Kansas, Maine and Texas, and an 11-point lead for Abdul El-Sayed over Mike Rogers in Michigan. The Michigan race became even more newsworthy over the weekend when Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who lost to El-Sayed in the primary, endorsed Rogers. That decision earned condemnation from high-profile Democrats and praise from President Trump.
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The poll also showed Democratic candidate Josh Turek with a 1-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Mary Peltola leading Alaska's incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 2 points despite the ongoing controversy surrounding the third-party candidate, also named Dan Sullivan. Both leads are within the margin of error.
Both Georgia and North Carolina, states Trump won in 2024, show the Democratic candidates — Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper — holding leads outside the margins of error.
President Donald Trump stands on stage after speaking at a campaign rally at the Salina Regional Airport, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Salina Kan. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
For reference, these are the percentage points by which Trump beat Kamala Harris in the following states in 2024 (Harris won Maine by 6.9 points):
Michigan: 1.4 points
Georgia: 2.2 points
North Carolina: 3.2 points
Ohio: 11.2 points
Alaska: 13.1 points
Iowa: 13.2 points
Texas: 13.7 points
Kansas: 16.2 points
Even in Louisiana, a state Trump won by 22 points in 2024, a Lincoln Park Strategies poll found the Senate race between Democrat Jamie Davis and Republican US Rep. Julia Letlow to be tied.
Polls may not tell the full story, however. In the Trump era, polls have had their own issues. In 2016, forecasters famously gave Hillary Clinton a higher chance to win the presidency than Trump, and polls have underestimated Republican support in several recent cycles. Speaker Mike Johnson has said he believes that polls are "even further off this time because more and more Republicans are unwilling to participate in these surveys."
Analysts point to Trump's approval rating as a factor in the strong Democratic polling. It has slipped to 37%, according to a recent Emerson College poll, down from 39% as recently as September. According to Civiqs' state-by-state tracker, he has positive approval ratings in only eight states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
Source: “AOL Breaking”
